This is a quick earnings preview on APDN. For full coverage see the other APDN articles on the site.
APDN is set to report earnings for it’s Fiscal Q4 and FY 2015 after the close today. APDN will file a 10-K after the close. They typically file around 5pm EST. This will be followed by a PR between 5am and 7:30am tomorrow morning and a conference call at 8:30am.
The average analyst estimate is for $2.09M in revenue and a loss of 9 cents. If APDN meets this estimate, it will represent a 220% annual revenue growth rate and 160% YoY revenue growth rate for 4th quarter. Just by merely coming in-line with estimates, APDN should be poised for a significant pop as the continued growth will debunk the short thesis published by The Pump Stopper on Seeking Alpha on October 29th. APDN was trading at $7 before the hit piece was published so a solid quarter of $2M+ should put that short thesis to rest and see the stock rising back towards $7.
However, at StoryTrading, we believe the upside is far greater than that. APDN has reported 35% sequential revenue growth over the past 5 quarters and 50% sequential growth over the past 3 quarters! These numbers are just astronomical. We’ve been tracking the business very closely and have collected enough information to predict that revenue will rise at least another 50% sequentially in Q4. You can see all the data we’ve collected here.
If StoryTrading is right, APDN may report 200% annual revenue growth and a mind-blowing 440% revenue growth for Q4 2015 compared with Q4 2014. Additionally, at these revenue levels, APDN may be close to an adjusted EBITDA break-even or may possibly report an adjusted EBITDA profit. Keep in mind, these estimates are far above what wall street analysts are expecting so if these numbers are not met, I do not expect a negative reaction in the stock price. However; if these numbers are met, APDN could trade in the $5-$7 range over the next several days and analysts may increase their consensus 12-month price targets from $9 to the $10 – $15 range.
See the link above and click the “Price Targets” tab for more information. We’ll be going through the 10-K live tonight in our free chat room. Join for free to discuss with us live.